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	<title>Shadow Government Statistics</title>
	<link>https://www.shadowstats.com</link>
	<description>Analysis Behind and Beyond Government Economic Reporting</description>
	<pubDate>Thu, 31 Aug 2023 00:53:35 +0000</pubDate>
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		<title>Flash Commentary No, 1460b</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/cfc1460b</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Jun 2021 00:57:15 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1468</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Fundamentals Could Not Be Stronger for Gold and Silver, nor Weaker for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Fed or Market Nonsense to the Contrary 
&#8226; There Is No V-Shaped Recovery 
&#8226; Battered, Non-Recovered May 2021 Payrolls and Unemployment Confirmed a Still-Ravaged Economy on Par With the Great Depression 
&#8226; Severely Negative Annual Revisions to Industrial Production Mean the Economy Was in Recession Well Before the Pandemic Hit 
&#8226; Business-Cycle Conditions Are Collapsing Rapidly, Amidst an Extreme Acceleration in Inflation 
&#8226; 2021 Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) Could Spike to a 40-Year High, Based on Potential Third-Quarter 2021 CPI-W 
&#8226; Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present 
&#8226; FOMC Has Trouble Forecasting Inflation One Quarter Ahead, Let Alone Two Years Ahead 
&#8226; Despite Talk of “Tightening” in 2022 or 2023, FOMC Is “Easing” Anew in Its Latest Actions 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Flash Commentary No. 1460a</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/csgs1460a</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 May 2021 23:07:21 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1467</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard 
&#8226; New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse 
&#8226; Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak 
&#8226; New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak 
&#8226; Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels 
&#8226; April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) 
&#8226; Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook 
&#8226; Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking 
&#8226; Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies 
&#8226; Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Flash Commentary No. 1460a</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/csgs1460a</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 May 2021 23:07:20 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1466</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower; Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard 
&#8226; New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession, Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse 
&#8226; Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak 
&#8226; New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline, February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak 
&#8226; Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels 
&#8226; April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%) 
&#8226; Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook 
&#8226; Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking 
&#8226; Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies 
&#8226; Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Benchmark Commentary No. 1459</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/c</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Apr 2021 09:15:26 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1465</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Intractable and Deteriorating Conditions Still Signal No Imminent Economic Recovery, Irrespective of Some Bounces in March Activity Against Weather-Driven February Collapses 
&#8226; Monthly Annual and Post-Pandemic Payroll Declines Have Stabilized Around Minus Six-to-Seven Percent for the Last Eight Month, Weakest Showing Since 1946 
&#8226; Annual-Change Gyrations Are Just Beginning for Economic, Inflation, Money Supply and Financial Return Numbers, as the Pandemic-Driven Collapse Passes It First Anniversary 
&#8226; Beyond Year One, Multi-Year, Crisis-Driven Collapses Need to Be Assessed Against Pre-Crisis Levels, or Stacked Two-Year Change, As Well As Year-to-Year Change 
&#8226; The Federal Reserve Overhauled Its Money Supply Reporting, Redefining Traditional M1 from 34.8% to 93.4% of a Not-Redefined Total M2 
&#8226; This Masked Accelerating Flight-to-Liquidity in Traditional M1 from Non-M1 Components of M2 
&#8226; ShadowStats Defined "Basic M1" -- Combined Currency and Demand Deposits -- Still Reflects the Extraordinary Liquidity Flight to, and Surge in the Narrower Money Supply 
&#8226; Expanded Federal Reserve Accommodation Remains Likely Well Into 2023, Given the Increasingly Negative Outlook for Imminent U.S. Economic Recovery 
&#8226; Fed Chair Powell Noted That Surging Money Supply No Longer Boosts the Economy 
&#8226; That Is Because the Current Collapse Is Pandemic, Not Business-Cycle Driven; Surging Money Growth in a Non-Business-Cycle Collapse Can Trigger Hyperinflation 
&#8226; Surging Monetary Base, Reserves and Currency Indicate Intensifying Systemic Problems 
&#8226; Underlying Fundamentals Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary 
]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title></title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/csgs1459a</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Apr 2021 09:12:37 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1464</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[


Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Flash Commentary No. 1458</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/cFL1458</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Feb 2021 09:59:40 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1463</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; January 2021 Manufacturing Declined Year-to-Year for the 19th Consecutive Month, Still in the Downturn Induced by the FOMC 15 Months Before the Pandemic Collapse 
&#8226; Where January 2021 Year-to-Year Manufacturing Contracted by 1.0% (-1.0%), It Also Contracted by 1.8% (-1.8%) from January 2019, Two Years Ago 
&#8226; While the January 2021 Cass Freight Index® Gained Year-to-Year for the Fourth Straight Month, It Also Contracted by 1.6% (-1.6%) from Two Years Ago 
&#8226; Despite Happy Headline Gains in January 2021 Real Retail Sales, Production and Construction, the Underlying Payroll Employment Numbers Tell the Opposite Story 
&#8226; First-Quarter 2021 GDP Remains at Risk of Relapsing into Quarterly Contraction 
&#8226; January 2021 Producer Price Index Monthly Inflation Hit a Record, 10-Year High 
&#8226; U.S. Dollar Collapse Accelerates 
&#8226; Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Developing Inflation and Financial-Market Turmoil 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Flash Commentary No. 1457</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/cFL1457</link>
		<pubDate>Tue, 16 Feb 2021 03:21:10 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1462</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Soared to an April 2020 Peak of About 32%, Worse Than in the Great Depression; Such Was Against a January 2020 Pre-Pandemic U.3 Unemployment Rate of 3.5% 
&#8226; In the Latest Four Months, Pandemic-Driven Unemployment Has Leveled Off Around 12%, Worst Since Before World War II, Other than for the Pandemic 
&#8226; Payroll-Employment Benchmark Revisions Showed a Deepening, Accelerating Decline into an April 2020 Trough, With Renewed Deterioration at Present; Recovery from the Pandemic Shutdown Has Stalled and/or Is Regressing 
&#8226; January 2021 Annual Growth in Money Supply M1 and M2 Surged to Respective Record Highs of 69.7% and 25.8%, Despite Some Downside Benchmark Revisions 
&#8226; Near Record Growth of Currency in Circulation Foreshadows Inflation Risk 
&#8226; Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation 
&#8226; Stock Indices Are At or Near All-Time Highs, Coming into the First Anniversary of the Pre-Pandemic Stock-Market Peaks and Subsequent Crashes 
&#8226; Near-Term Financial-Market Turmoil Likely Is Far from Over, Given Renewed Deterioration in Economic Conditions 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Flash Commentary No. 1456</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/cfl1456</link>
		<pubDate>Mon, 01 Feb 2021 09:45:42 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1461</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Fourth-Quarter 2020 Annualized Real GDP Growth of 4.0% Was as Expected, Slowing from the Record 33.4% Third-Quarter Pandemic Rebound 
&#8226; Full-Year 2020 Annual GDP Decline of 3.5% (-3.5%) Was the Deepest Since the 1946 Post-World War II Economic Reset 
&#8226; Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery 
&#8226; First-Quarter 2021 GDP Increasingly Is Set for a Relapsing Quarterly Contraction 
&#8226; Deepening Deficits in Fourth-Quarter and Annual 2020 Real Net-Exports (GDP) and the Related Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Were the Worst Ever in Modern U.S. Reporting 
&#8226; Real Annual Growth in New Orders for Durable Goods Turned Negative, Amidst Renewed Slowing in Commercial Aircraft Orders 
&#8226; Full-Year 2020 Existing- and New-Home Sales Were Highest Since 2006 
&#8226; Yet, Fourth-Quarter 2020 New-Home Sales Contracted, as Did Real Retail Sales, Suggestive of Consumers Facing Intensifying Pandemic and Liquidity Issues 
&#8226; Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Economic Commentary, Issue No. 1455</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/c1455</link>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Jan 2021 15:03:46 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1460</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020 
&#8226; Narrowing Annual Declines in October and November Payrolls Stalled at 6.0% (-6.0%), But the Year-to-Year Drop in December 2020 Payrolls Deepened to 6.2% (-6.2%) 
&#8226; An Increasing Number of Unemployed People Were Misclassified as Employed; Corrected December Unemployment Would Have Jumped, Instead of Holding at 6.7% 
&#8226; December 2020 Real Retail Sales Declined for the Third Straight Month, and Fourth-Quarter 2020 Activity Relapsed into Quarterly Contraction 
&#8226; December 2020 Cass Freight Index® Jumped Year-to-Year by 6.7%, but Its Two-Year Change Was Down 1.8% (-1.8%) from December 2018, Due to FOMC Tightening Contracting Intervening 2019 Activity 
&#8226; Momentum of Fourth-Quarter Data Suggests a First-Quarter 2021 GDP Contraction, As the Pandemic and Political Tumult Take on Negative New Dimensions 
&#8226; Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" 
&#8226; Latest Weekly Money Supply M1 Jumped an Unprecedented 72.3% Year-to-Year 
&#8226; Severe, U.S. Dollar-Debasing Inflationary Pressures from Existing, Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies Are About to Get Much Worse 
&#8226; Risk of Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse Has Accelerated With Democrats Taking Control of Both the White House and Congress 
&#8226; Holding Physical Precious Metals Remains the Best Hedge Against Coming Inflation and Market Turmoil 
]]></description>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Economic Commentary No. 1454</title>
		<link>https://www.shadowstats.com/article/cec1454</link>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Dec 2020 00:58:44 +0000</pubDate>
		
		<category><![CDATA[Commentaries]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">/cgi-bin/admiin.cgi?p=1457</guid>
                <description><![CDATA[&#8226; Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead 
&#8226; Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery 
&#8226; On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration 
&#8226; November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month, On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months 
&#8226; November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices 
&#8226; Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus, With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023 
&#8226; Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation 
&#8226; Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1 
&#8226; Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1; Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits, Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020 
&#8226; Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2; November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump 
&#8226; Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation 
]]></description>
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