Economic Commentary No. 1454
Deepening Economic Woes and Soaring Inflation Ahead
Underlying Economic and Labor Numbers through November Indicate Contracting or
Flattening Fourth-Quarter 2020 GDP, Well Shy of Economic Recovery
On Top of Downside Revisions, Declining November Real Retail Sales
Showed Renewed Economic Deterioration
November New-Home Sales Collapsed by a Meaningful 11.1% (-11.1%) in the Month,
On Top of Major Downside Revisions to Sales in Each of the Prior Three Months
November Industrial Production and Its Dominant Manufacturing Sector
Showed Deepening Year-to-Year Declines, While the Mining Sector
Showed a Narrowed Annual Plunge, Thanks to Rising Oil Prices
Federal Reserve Sees Continuing Need for Inflation-Boosting Monetary Stimulus,
With No Economic Recovery Expected Before 2023
Continuing Massive Expansions of Federal Government Deficit Spending and
Federal Reserve Monetary Stimulus Promise Massive Inflation
Liquidity-Strapped Consumers Move to Cash, Spiking Traditional Money Supply M1
Minimizing Reporting of Such, the Fed Just Redefined Money Supply M1;
Given Newly Defined M1-Like Liquidity Characteristics for M2 Savings Deposits,
Savings Have Been Shifted Retroactively from M2 to into M1, Effective as of May 2020
Redefined November Money Supply M1 Just Jumped from 31.7% to 92.7% of Total M2;
November 2020 Year-to-Year Growth in the Traditional Money Supply M1 Soared to a
Record 53.2%, the Redefined New Series Reflects a Record 348.4% Jump
Weakening U.S. Dollar, Rebounding Gold and Oil Prices Foreshadow Rising Inflation