Flash Commentary No. 1460a
Benchmarked Industrial Production Revised Sharply Lower;
Both Manufacturing and Mining Were Hit Hard
New Numbers Indicate the Economy Was in a Deepening Recession,
Well Before the Pandemic Shutdown and Collapse
Old Numbers Showed Production Peaked in December 2018 and Flattened Out,
February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 3.75% Higher Than the Pre-Great Recession Peak
New Numbers Show Production Peaked in August 2018 and Entered Protracted Decline,
February 2020 Pre-Pandemic Peak Was 1.11% (-1.11%) Below the Pre-Great Recession Peak
Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels
April 2020 Pandemic/Economic Trough Revised Lower by 5.1% (-5.1%)
Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook
Negative Implications Here for the July 29th GDP Benchmarking
Chances Are Reduced for Moderating Extreme Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Evolving Circumstances Remain Extremely Strong for Gold and Silver, and Weak for the
U.S. Dollar and Stocks, Despite Central Bank or Other Systemic Machinations to the Contrary