Special Commentary No. 1437
Worst U.S. Economic Activity Ever Reported
April Retail Sales Fell the Most in Its 73-Year Reporting History
Production and Manufacturing Tumbled the Most in Their 101-Year History
Increasing New Claims for Unemployment Insurance and Insured Unemployed
Confirm the Economy Fell Further in May, Albeit Likely at a Moderating Pace
Second-Quarter 2020 Real Annualized GDP Contraction of
About 50% (-50%) Will Surpass Anything Ever Seen
If There Are Meaningful Efforts to Reopen the Economy,
Third Quarter Activity Could Move Off Bottom in a
Nascent L- or Shallow U-Shaped Recovery
Benchmark Revisions to New Orders for Durable Goods Confirmed
Major Downside Revisions Loom for Pre-Pandemic GDP Reporting
U.S. Economy Already Was in Trouble Before the Pandemic,
Because of Intensifying Federal Reserve Policy Malfeasance and
Federal Government Fiscal Malpractice