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OPEN Commentaries from June 2014
No. 637: GDP Revision, Durable Goods Orders, New- and Existing-Home Sales
June, 25th, 2014
• Collapsing First-Quarter 2014 Economic Activity (GDP, GNP and GDI) Fell Below Third-Quarter 2013 Levels
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
• GDP Activity Fell, Even Before Adjusting for Slowing Inventory Growth
• Quarterly GDP Activity Contracted, Even Before Adjusting for Inflation
• Looming Second-Quarter Economic Contraction Likely to Formalize “Renewed” Recession and to Hit Markets Hard
• Durable Goods Orders Turned Down in Otherwise Stagnant Activity
• Despite Monthly Gain, Existing-Homes Sales Continued in Annual Contraction
• Neither Monthly nor Annual New-Home Sales Gain Was Statistically-Significant
No. 636: May CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Housing Starts
June, 17th, 2014
• When Understated Headline Inflation Generates Contracting Activity,
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth
the Economy Is in Serious Trouble,
• Inflation More Than Wiped Out the Headline Gain in May Retail Sales
• Inflation-Adjusted Earnings Fell for Second Month
• May Annual Inflation: 2.1% (CPI-U), 2.1% (CPI-W), 9.9% (ShadowStats)
• Housing Starts in a State of Volatile Stagnation
• Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Should Follow in Wake of Continuing Downgrades of First-Quarter GDP Growth
No. 635: May Industrial Production, Producer Price Index (PPI)
June, 16th, 2014
• Drop in Headline PPI Inflation Ran Counter to Underlying Indicators
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place
• May Production Jump Reflected Issues with Seasonal Adjustments and Conflict with Underlying Fundamentals
• Outlook for Second-Quarter GDP Contraction Remains in Place
No. 634: May Retail Sales, Monetary Conditions
June, 12th, 2014
• May Retail Sales Likely Were Flat After Inflation Adjustment
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt
• Fed Currently Monetizing 69% of Net Treasury Issuance of Publicly Held Debt
No. 633: May Employment and Unemployment, Money Supply M3
June, 6th, 2014
• Monthly Payroll Gains Overstated by 200,000-Plus Jobs
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May
• Contrary to Common Experience, May Payrolls Purportedly Regained Pre-Recession High
• May Unemployment: 6.3% (U.3), 12.2% (U.6), 23.2% (ShadowStats)
• Year-to-Year M3 Growth Jumped to 4.6% in May
No. 632: April Trade Deficit and Benchmark, Construction Spending, Liquidity
June, 4th, 2014
• New Trade Data Indicate Weaker Recent Economy
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate
• April Trade Deficit Suggestive of Heavy Damage to Second-Quarter 2014 GDP
• Renewed Recession Remains on Track, with Consumer Liquidity Still Heavily Impaired
• Construction Spending Continued to Stagnate