Flash Update
New Year Faces Financial Peril/Year-End Newsletter by January 2nd
The team here at Shadow Government Statistics extends to all best wishes for a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!
Enjoying the early-Spring-like weather of New Jersey, I am finishing the December/Year-End SGS newsletter that will be posted on the Web site by January 2nd. Updated Alternate Data for M3, the trade- vs. financial-weighted U.S. dollar and the "final" estimate of third-quarter GDP already have been posted.
Although estimated on three weeks worth of data, December M3 and an upward revision to November's annual growth show a pattern of accelerating growth in the formerly broadest of U.S. monetary aggregates. Therein is a hint of what will be one of the major, ongoing market concerns in 2007: inflation. The other key economic features of the year ahead will be a deepening, structural recession, and a U.S. government fiscal disaster careening out of control.
Where 2006 closed out the year with higher equity prices and somewhat higher interest rates, it also saw a significant surge in the price of gold and the early stages of a major weakening of U.S. dollar. The U.S. equity and credit face bleak prospects in 2007, with strong upside potential for gold and a massive downside potential for the U.S. dollar.
As well as assessing current economic and financial conditions, the forthcoming newsletter will look at the prospects of the current circumstance evolving into a hyperinflationary depression as opposed to a deflationary depression.
While the preceding probably does not qualify as holiday cheer, the good news is that forewarned, much can be done to preserve assets and liquidity. Once the financial storm has passed, extraordinary investment opportunities will abound.
Details follow in the newsletter.
Again, Happy New Year!
John
Walter J. "John" Williams www.shadowstats.com
The team here at Shadow Government Statistics extends to all best wishes for a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!
Enjoying the early-Spring-like weather of New Jersey, I am finishing the December/Year-End SGS newsletter that will be posted on the Web site by January 2nd. Updated Alternate Data for M3, the trade- vs. financial-weighted U.S. dollar and the "final" estimate of third-quarter GDP already have been posted.
Although estimated on three weeks worth of data, December M3 and an upward revision to November's annual growth show a pattern of accelerating growth in the formerly broadest of U.S. monetary aggregates. Therein is a hint of what will be one of the major, ongoing market concerns in 2007: inflation. The other key economic features of the year ahead will be a deepening, structural recession, and a U.S. government fiscal disaster careening out of control.
Where 2006 closed out the year with higher equity prices and somewhat higher interest rates, it also saw a significant surge in the price of gold and the early stages of a major weakening of U.S. dollar. The U.S. equity and credit face bleak prospects in 2007, with strong upside potential for gold and a massive downside potential for the U.S. dollar.
As well as assessing current economic and financial conditions, the forthcoming newsletter will look at the prospects of the current circumstance evolving into a hyperinflationary depression as opposed to a deflationary depression.
While the preceding probably does not qualify as holiday cheer, the good news is that forewarned, much can be done to preserve assets and liquidity. Once the financial storm has passed, extraordinary investment opportunities will abound.
Details follow in the newsletter.
Again, Happy New Year!
John
Walter J. "John" Williams www.shadowstats.com