Flash Update
FLASH UPDATE
October 17, 2007
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Annual CPI Jumps to 2.8% in September, Pre-Clinton at 6.1%, SGS Alternate at 10.4%
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PLEASE NOTE: Following is a brief summary of recent data releases, in advance of the full monthly newsletter. The SGS-Alternate CPI for September has been updated on the Alternate Data Series tab at www.shadowstats.com. -- Best wishes to all, John Williams
The seasonally-adjusted September CPI-U rose 0.27% +/- 0.12% (0.28% unadjusted), following August's adjusted 0.14% (0.18%) decline. Annual CPI inflation for September jumped to 2.76% from 1.97% in August. Annualized year-to-date CPI inflation is 3.6% seasonally adjusted, 4.4% unadjusted.
The annual Pre-Clinton CPI inflation (based on 1990 methodologies) rose to an estimated 6.1% in September from 5.4% in August, while the annual SGS-Alternate CPI (based on 1980 methodologies) rose to an estimated 10.4% in September from 9.9% in August.
The substitution-based C-CPI-U, which has no relationship to the cost of living needed to maintain a constant standard of living, showed annual inflation in September of 2.31%, up from 1.86% in August.
With oil and food prices generally and persistently trending higher, the concept of looking at "core" inflation on an annual basis remains meaningless, except for those at the Fed, in the Administration and on Wall Street who continue trying to mislead the public and investors as to actual inflationary pressures. Where oil prices, in particular, eventually permeate most areas of business costs, the continued reporting of no pick-up in core inflation strongly suggests that the data are being managed so as to generate such a result.
The housing starts growth rates (down 10.2% for September and down 30.8% for the year) were somewhat below expectations, but could not be too surprising, given the uncertain impact of the magnitude of the mortgage market upheaval last month. The 0.1% gain in September industrial production was in line with consensus, although there were some net downward revisions to prior production history.
Full details will follow in the October SGS newsletter.
The October SGS is targeted for over the coming weekend/Monday, so as to include today's September CPI and housing starts data. An e-mail advice will be made of its and any intervening Flash Update/Alert postings.