ALERT - December 15, 2008

JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS

A L E R T

December 15, 2008

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Treasury Reports 2008 Federal Deficit of $1.009 Trillion (GAAP-Based),
$5.1 Trillion Including Social Security/Medicare

Total U.S. Government Obligations at $66 Trillion

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Against what had been the recently publicized, cash-based "official" fiscal 2008 (year-ended September 30th) federal deficit of $454.8 billion, and similar $161.8 billion deficit in 2007, the U.S. Treasury reported this afternoon (December 15th) that the 2008 deficit [change in net position] was $1,009.1 billion, versus $275.5 billion in 2007, using generally-accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Since 2002, the Treasury has been reporting the government’s finances using annual statements prepared using accounting standards similar to those used in corporate America, but the statements typically have minimal, if any, following in the popular financial media.

The new numbers, however, still do not account for the annual change in the net present value of unfunded Social Security and Medicare liabilities. Counting those changes, as a corporation would for its pension and healthcare liabilities for retirees, the 2008 annual deficit was $5.1 trillion, versus $1.2 trillion in 2007. Such showed total U.S. obligations — gross federal debt outstanding plus the net present value of unfunded liabilities — at $66 trillion, roughly 4.6 times the level of reported U.S. GDP, and greater than total estimated global GDP.

These numbers remain unsustainable, already are deteriorating severely for fiscal 2009, and eventually will doom the U.S. dollar to hyperinflation, as discussed in the Hyperinflation Special Report at www.shadowstats.com.

I have not had a chance to review the statements in careful detail, yet, and there apparently have been some minor accounting changes that do not alter the picture meaningfully. A more complete analysis will follow in the upcoming newsletter. The full financial statements, including the GAO’s auditing comments, are available at:

http://www.fms.treas.gov/fr/08frusg/08frusg.pdf

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