New Recession Remains Very Much in Play;
Second-Quarter GDP Prospects Have Dimmed, with
Auto Sales and Production Spiked by Prior-Month Downside Revisions

Never Seen Outside of Formal Recessions, Second-Quarter Production
Showed Third Consecutive Set of Annual and Quarterly Contractions

Down in June by 6.2% (-6.2%) from Its Pre-Recession High,
Second-Quarter Manufacturing Contracted

Second-Quarter Real Earnings Contracted

Although Positive in the Second Quarter,
Real Retail Sales Continued Its Intense Recession Signal

June 2016 Annual Inflation Changed Minimally, with
CPI-U at 1.0%, CPI-W Easing to 0.6% and ShadowStats at 8.7%

Monthly PPI Goods Inflation Rose by 0.84% and
Services Margins Rose by 0.45% in June 2016, with Total
Final-Demand PPI up by 0.36% for the Month, 0.27% for the Year

 

Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document