No. 826: July Production, Housing Starts, CPI, Real Retail Sales and Earnings, Freight Index
Industrial Production Represents 65% of GDP
Production Recovery from the 2007 Recession Lasted All of One Month
Against Pre-2007 Recession Highs, Production and Manufacturing Were
Down Respectively in July 2016 by 0.77% (-0.77%) and 5.80% (-5.80%)
Still Never Seen Outside of Formal Recessions in the 98-Year History of
Industrial Production, Three Consecutive Quarters of Annual Contraction
Now Are Expanding into a Fourth Quarter
July Real Retail Sales Were Unchanged Month-to-Month, with
Annual Real Growth Weakening Sharply in an Intensifying Recession Signal
Housing Starts Continued to Hold in Smoothed, Low-Level Stagnation,
Never Having Recovered Pre-Recession Highs
Second Quarter GDP Growth Should Face Downside Revision
July 2016 Annual Inflation Softened by 0.2% (-0.2%), with
CPI-U at 0.8%, CPI-W at 0.5% and ShadowStats at 8.5%
Weakening Economic Circumstances Increasingly Befuddle Fed Activity,
Weakening the Dollar and Strengthening Gold, Silver and Oil Prices
Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document