Benchmarked Retail Sales Revised Higher with 2015 Survey Details, but
Subsequent Annual Growth Revised Sharply Lower, to Date,
Generating a New, Traditional Signal for Recession


Net of Inflation and Irregularly-Surging Commercial Aircraft Orders, the
Headline Gain of 0.7% in March 2017 Durable Goods Orders Was 0.1%;
Real Activity Continued in Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation


Monthly New- and Existing-Home Sales Rose in March,
In the Continuing Context of Low-Level, Non-Recovered Stagnation


Despite Big Boost from Headline Drop in March CPI,
March Real Median Household Income Was Statistically Unchanged,
Still Holding Below January 2000 and Signaling Consumer Liquidity Stresses

 

Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document