Trade-Deficit Benchmarking Showed Deeper Deficits 2014-to-Date, with
Implications for Downside Benchmark Revisions to the GDP


Second-Quarter 2017 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit Is on Track for
Worst Showing Since Second-Quarter 2007


In Uptrending, Low-Level Stagnation, April Freight Index Gained Year-to-Year,
Holding Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Peak by 12.6% (-12.6%)


May Real-World Employment Conditions Continued in Annual Decline, at a
Pace Not Seen Since the Depths of the 2009 Collapse


Monthly Payroll Gains Slowed on Top of Downside, Prior-Period Revisions


Slowing, Unadjusted Year-to-Year Payroll Growth Held at Low Levels
Common to Periods Preceding Economic Recession


May 2017 Unemployment: U.3 Declined to 4.3% from 4.4%,
U.6 Fell to 8.4% from 8.6% and the ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 22.0% from 22.1%


Labor Numbers Out of Balance:
April 2017 Headline Unemployment of 4.3%, Lowest Since March 2001,
Coincided with Weakening, Near-Historic Lows in the
Participation Rate (Labor Force/Population) and Employment-to-Population Ratio


In Contrast, March 2001 Headline Unemployment of 4.3% Coincided with
Participation Rates and Employment-Population Ratios Just Off Historic Highs


Real Construction Spending Remained 21.3% (-21.3%) Short of Recovering its
Pre-Recession Peak, Still Holding in Low-Level Stagnation


Money Supply M3 Annual Growth Rose to 3.6% in May, versus 3.4% in April

Download the full Commentary as a PDF Document