No. 905: July Industrial Production, Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Freight Index
For the Second Time, Industrial Production Has Regained
Its Pre-Recession Peak of December 2007, Now Up by 0.14%, but
Still Down 1.07% (-1.07%) from Its November 2014 Two-Month Recovery Peak
Once Again, the Production Recovery Reflected Tops in
Oil and Gas Exploration and Extraction, Which Are Vulnerable to Low Oil Prices
In the Dominant but Still-Faltering Manufacturing Sector:
A Record 115 Months of Continued Non-Expansion, with No End in Sight
July Manufacturing Was Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 6.04% (-6.04%)
Non-Recovered Freight Growth Slowed Anew
Headline July Retail Sales Surged but Were Not Credible
Recession Signal Continued from Low Annual Real Retail Sales Growth
Building Permits and Housing Starts Showed Deepening Contractions:
Permits Fell by 2.8% (-2.8%) in First Quarter, by 11.0% (-11.0%) in Second Quarter;
Starts Fell by 3.4% (-3.4%) in First Quarter, by 21.9% (-21.9%) in Second Quarter;
Both Series Trended Lower in Third Quarter, Based on July Detail
Activity Held Shy of Regaining Pre-Recession Peaks by 46.0% (-46.0%) for Building Permits,
49.2% (-49.2%) for Housing Starts and 53.0% (-53.0%) for Single-Unit Starts,
While Multi-Unit Starts Have Fallen Back Anew by 33.6% (-33.6%)