No. 916: September 2017 Retail Sales, Consumer and Producer Price Indices
Hurricane-Related Boost to September Production Followed
Sharp-Downside Revisions to Activity in the Months before the Hurricanes
September Housing Starts Took a Small Hit from the Tempests,
But No More than the Regular Series Volatility in a Given Month
Storm Disruptions Boosted September Retail Sales and Inflation, yet
Long-Range, Non-Recovering and Downtrending Economic Trends Remained in Play
Disaster-Spiked Economic Activity Usually Favors a Fed Easing, Not a Tightening
With Mixed Disaster Elements, September Retail Sales Jumped as Expected,
Due Particularly to Replacement of Storm-Damaged Automobiles
Hurricane-Spiked Oil/Gasoline Prices Drove September 2017 CPI and PPI Higher
September CPI-U Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.55%
Pulled Annual CPI-U Inflation Higher to 2.23% (Was 1.94%), with
CPI-W at 2.31% (Was 1.93%) and ShadowStats at 10.0% (Was 9.7%)
Fed’s Targeted "Core" CPI-U Inflation Held at 1.7% for Fifth Month
September Final-Demand PPI Inflation Monthly Gain of 0.44%
Pulled Annual Gain to a 67-Month High of 2.62%, from 2.35% in August
Real Average Weekly Earnings Declined in September and Minimally in Third-Quarter 2017
Early-October Consumer Sentiment Highest Since 2004,
Still Shy of its 2000 High by 9.7% (-9.7%)
Consumers Accepting Limits on "Improving Prospects for Living Standards"
Was Responsible for the Jump in Optimism?