Despite Mixed Headline Economic Numbers,
Uncertainty Is Holding Back Real-World Business Activity

Booming Retail Sales Reflected Complications with Non-Seasonal,
Residual Hurricane Distortions Combined with Concurrent Seasonal Adjustments

November 2017 Retail Sales Jumped by 0.79%, up by 0.40% Net of Inflation,
On Top of Sharp Upside Revisions to September and October Activity

Running Contrary to the Strong Retail Sales Report,
November 2017 Consumer Goods Production Dropped by 0.39% (-0.39%) and
Revised Sharply Lower in October, September, August, July and June

November 2017 Total Industrial Production Rose 0.2% from an
Unrevised, Hurricane-Distorted/Boosted October Production Level, in the
Context of Sharp Downside Revisions to September and Earlier Activity

Net of an Oil Production Boost from Hurricane Nate Recovery,
November Industrial Production was "Unchanged" Month-to-Month, per the Fed

Dominant Manufacturing Sector of Industrial Production Remained
Shy of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak by 4.7% (-4.7%)

November Manufacturing Showed 119 Months of Continuous Non-Expansion, the
Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Industrial Production Series;
Second Worst: 96-Months of Post-World War II Retooling from War to Consumer Production;
Third Worst: 88-Months of the First Down-Leg in the Great Depression