2018: An Unusually Challenging and Unsettled Time, with Likely
Tumultuous Markets, a Non-Recovering Economy, Political Turmoil and Election Surprises

Faltering Consumer Outlook and Tightening Liquidity Conditions Are
Inconsistent with Shrinking Unemployment and Surging Holiday-Season Sales

Beyond Data Disruptions, Booming Headline Economic Activity
Has Been Fueled by One-Time Insurance Payments and
Liquidation of Savings, Not by Regular or Sustainable Income Growth

December 2017 Marks the Tenth Anniversary of the
Formal Onset of the 2007 Recession

Economic Expansion Is Defined as Growth Beyond the Prior Business-Cycle Peak

Key Headline Measures of Consumer and Industrial Activity
Still Remain Shy of Recovering Pre-2007 Recession Peaks

Trade Deficit Has Turned Increasingly Negative for Fourth-Quarter GDP