Unexpected Faltering in U.S. Economic Activity Likely
Will Not Benefit Disorderly Markets


Annual 2017 Real Merchandise-Trade Deficit Was Worst Since 2007, with the
Fourth-Quarter 2017 Deficit Worst Since Second-Quarter 2007


Trade Deficit Exploded Versus China, NAFTA and OPEC


Widened Deficit Adds Downside-Revision Pressure to Fourth-Quarter GDP


Sinking Annual Payroll Growth Intensified Its Recession Signal,
Despite Upside Benchmark Revisions to Payroll Levels


Population Re-Estimation Added 488,000 Working-Age People,
Boosting a Magical (Illusioned) 409,000 Surge in January Employment


January 2018 Unemployment Rates Notched Higher Month-to-Month:
U.3 Firmed to 4.15% from 4.07%, U.6 Rose to 8.19% from 8.08%, and the
ShadowStats-Alternate Rose to 21.8% from 21.7%

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