As a Weakening Economy Threatens Fed Policy, Watch the Dollar!

Headline Retail Sales Helped Put the Lie to the Happy Jobs Report;
Recession Signal Remained Heavily in Place

February Real Retail Sales Declined Month-to-Month by 0.22% (-0.22%), but the
Monthly Decline was 0.48% (-0.48%), Net of Seasonal-Factor Reporting Inconsistencies

With Three Consecutive Monthly Contractions in Place
Real Sales Are on Solid Course for a First-Quarter Contraction,
Increasingly, So Is the GDP

Real Average Weekly Earnings on Track for Third-Consecutive Quarterly Decline, the
Fifth Headline Quarter-to-Quarter Decline in the Last Six Quarters

A Leading Indicator to Broad Economic Activity,
February Real Annual Growth in Money Supply M3 Slowed to a Five-Month Low

Unadjusted Annual CPI-U Inflation Rose to 2.21% in February, from 2.07% in January,
Annual PPI Inflation Rose to 2.77% from 2.69%, Well Shy of Common Experience,
Still Dominated by Irregular Volatility in Adjusted, Monthly Gasoline Prices

Fed’s Targeted 2.0% "Core" Inflation Held Range-Bound at 1.8% for the 11th Month