No. 953-A: May 2018 Monetary Conditions, Labor Numbers, April Construction Spending
Federal Reserve Has Pushed Real Annual Money Supply Growth Down to Levels
That Threaten an Intensifying, “New” Economic Contraction
Annual Growth Weakened Sharply for All Money Supply Measures in May 2018,
Along with Continued Monthly and Annual Contractions in the Monetary Base
May Labor-Market Stress Remained Consistent with
Headline Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High Than a Record Low
Headline May U.3 Unemployment Declined to 3.8%,
Lowest Level Since October 2000, at the First Decimal Point
May U.3 (Second Decimal Point) Hit a Post-1994 (Modern-Series) Record Low of 3.75%,
Down from 3.93% in April, Otherwise at the Lowest Level Since December 1969
May U.6 Unemployment Declined to 7.59%, from 7.79%, the Lowest Since October 2000
The May ShadowStats-Alternate Eased to 21.4%, from 21.5%, Lowest Since September 2009,
Declining on Top of U.6 but Still Tempered by Long-Term Discouraged and Displaced Workers
May Payroll Jobs Gained 223,000 (up by 238,000 Net of Revisions), but with
Annual Growth of 1.61% Still in Recession-Signal Territory
Real Construction Spending Held Shy of Its Pre-Recession Peak by 19.5% (-19.5%),
Despite Surging Headline Activity in April 2018, and in the Context of
Unstable Reporting and Pending Benchmark Revisions