Consumer Liquidity Stresses Intensify

Bias Factors Generated 45% of the 2.4 Million Payroll Jobs
“Created” in the Twelve Months Through June 2018

June Payroll Survey Gained 213,000 Jobs (up by 250,000 Net of Revisions), but
Annual Growth of 1.6% Still Held in Recession-Signal Territory

In Contrast the Household Survey Lost 89,000 (-89,000) Full-Time Employed, and
Gained 145,000 Part-Time Employed

June U.3 Unemployment Rate Rose a Statistically-Significant 0.30% in the Month;
Headline Monthly Gain of 0.2% Simply Was a Rounding Artefact of
June U.3 Rising to 4.0% (4.05%) from 3.8% (3.75%) in May

Labor-Market Stress Remained at High Levels, Consistent with Headline
Unemployment Much Closer to a Record High than Just Off a Record Low

Official U.3 and the Broader U.6 Unemployment Measures Cannot Reconcile that
Conflicting Circumstance, but the ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Measure Does

June U.6 Unemployment Rose to 7.79% from 7.65% in May, While the
June ShadowStats-Alternate Unemployment Rose to 21.5% from 21.4%

May 2018 Balance-of-Payments Trade Deficit Shrank for Third-Straight Month;
Driven by Large, Irregular Export Surges That Should Reverse Shortly