No. 962: Second-Quarter GDP and the Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions - First Cut
GDP Benchmark Revisions Showed the Economic Collapse into 2009 to be
Shallower, With the Recovery and Expansion Somewhat Faster and Stronger
A Number of Pre-Announced Gimmicks, and Redefinitions Helped to
Mute Slowing Growth, Such as “Seasonally Adjusting” Seasonal Adjustments
Underlying Downside Benchmark Revisions to Series Such as Industrial Production
Had Limited Effect, Although Revised Trade Data Had Visible Impact
Second-Quarter 2018 Annualized Real GDP Growth Boomed by 4.06%,
Versus a Revised 2.22% (Previously 1.99%) in First-Quarter 2018, a
Revised 2.29% (Previously 2.89%) in Fourth-Quarter 2017 and a
Revised 2.82% (Previously 3.16%) in Third-Quarter 2017
Nothing Like Avoiding a Downside Revision to Headline First-Quarter Activity by
Lowering Growth in the Preceding Periods
Second-Quarter 2018 Real GDP Stood at 17.4% Above Its Pre-Recession Peak
Yet, No Major Underlying Economic Series or Broad Employment Measure
Comes Close to Confirming Such Growth in this Most-Heavily Gimmicked of U.S. Statistics