Economic Reality: Well Shy of Recovery, But Off Bottom and Growing

Net of Inflation-Gimmicked Boosts to Headline U.S. Real GDP Growth, the
Broad Economy Remains Well Shy of Recovering Its Peak Activity of 2007

Nonetheless, Real Economic Activity Is Off Its 2009 Bottom,
Growing Both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Since Second-Quarter 2017

Downside Risks to Activity Continue from Deteriorating Consumer Liquidity,
Exacerbated by Federal Reserve Tightening Policies

June Real Retail Sales Increased on Top of Upside Revisions,
Thanks Again to Unstable and Inconsistent Inflation and Seasonal Adjustments

Soft Consumer Goods Production and Orders
Throw “Booming” Real Retail Sales Into Question

June Manufacturing Held Below April Activity, Despite Reversing May Disruptions,
Still Shy by 5.6% (-5.6%) of Recovering Its 2007 Pre-Recession High, in a
Record 42-Consecutive Quarters (126 Months) of Economic Non-Expansion

Production Increased on Top of Downside Revisions, the
Manufacturing Reversal and Strength in Oil and Gas Extraction

Annual Growth in June Freight Index Backed Off Recent Surge;
Current Activity Still Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of Recovering a Pre-Recession High