Recent Sizzle Has Fizzled

Financial-Market and Economic Prospects Remain Far Shy of the Hype and Headlines,
Amidst Tanking Consumer Optimism and Negative Revisions to Recent Reporting

July 2018 Real Retail Sales Unchanged Net of Downside Revisions to May and June

July Housing Starts and Components Revised Lower, with
Deepening Downtrends and Quarterly Contractions

New Residential Construction Activity Held Shy of Recovering Pre-Recession Highs:
July Housing Starts by 49.1% (-49.1%), Single-Unit Starts by 53.2% (-53.2%),
Multiple-Unit Starts by 32.4% (-32.4%), Building Permits by 42.1% (-42.1%)

July Manufacturing Showed a Modest Increase on Top of Upside Revisions,
Still Holding Shy by 5.0% (-5.0%) of Recovering Its Pre-Recession Peak,
Setting a Record 127-Consecutive Months of Economic Non-Expansion

Common Experience and Realistic Estimates Show the Economy Is Not Exploding,
Holding Well Shy of Recovering Its 2007 Peak

Nonetheless, Real Aggregate Activity Remains Off Its 2009 Bottom,
Growing Both Quarter-to-Quarter and Year-to-Year, Since Second-Quarter 2017

Deteriorating Consumer and Systemic Liquidity, Intensify Economic Risks;
Federal Reserve Tightening Policies and Oil-Driven Inflation
Threaten a Fragile, Nascent Recovery