No. 968b: U.S. Economic Reality, Second-Quarter GDP, Second-Cut Comprehensive GDP Revisions
Statistical Deception Bloats Headline U.S. Economic Growth
“Pollyanna Creep” Has Added 18.1% to Nominal Gross Domestic Product Since 1980
Second-Quarter Real GDP Growth Rose to 4.23% from 2.22% in First Quarter,
While “GDP Equivalent” Gross Domestic Income Sank to 1.81% from 3.90%
Official Second-Quarter Real GDP Stood 17.5% Above Its 2007 Pre-Recession Peak,
Yet It Held Shy by 5.2% (-5.2%) of Recovering that Peak, When
Corrected for the Deliberate Understatement of GDP Inflation
Underlying Economic Reality Reflects Activity That Is Off Bottom, but
Well Shy of Headline Expansion, in Fragile Mixed-Growth Stability as
Confirmed by Better-Quality Broad Economic Measures
Yet, Private Labor Market Surveying, the Real Merchandise Trade Deficit and
Real Construction Spending All Faltered in the Latest Reporting
Federal Reserve Policies Threaten Any Nascent Economic Recovery, as
Systemic- and Consumer-Liquidity Conditions Tighten Meaningfully
GDP Benchmarking Pivoted on the Fourth-Quarter 2007 Business-Cycle Peak;
Prior Activity Shifted Lower; Subsequent Activity Shifted Increasingly Higher
Benchmarking Showed the Headline Economic Collapse into 2009 to be Shallower, the
Headline Recovery and Expansion to be Somewhat Faster and Stronger, Along with
Follow-Through Distortions Inflating the Latest Headline GDP Growth