As Some Acorns Begin to Fall, Beware the Dollar;
Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval Are High

Ongoing Federal Reserve Rate Hikes and Related Policies
Have Continued to Tighten Systemic and Consumer Liquidity,
Pummeling Retail Sales, and Near-Term Economic Prospects, and
Threatening Financial-System Stability

Hurricane-Triggered Boosts to Energy Prices in September 2017
Depressed Relative Year-to-Year Inflation Rates in September 2018;
Annual Consumer Inflation Should be Pushing Three-Percent by December

CPI-U Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions,
Softened to 2.28% in September 2018 versus 2.70% in August 2018

CPI-W Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions,
Softened to 2.33% in September 2018 versus 2.87% in August 2018

September Real Average Weekly Earnings Growth Remained Impaired

2019 Social Security COLA of 2.8% (Based on the CPI-W), Would Have Been 2.4%
Using the C-CPI-U, Which Has Been Designed for That Purpose, But Not Yet Implemented

FOMC-Targeted Core CPI Inflation, Little Affected by Year-Ago Hurricane Disruptions,
Held at 2.17% Year-to-Year in September 2018 versus 2.20% in August 2018

Aggregate PPI Unadjusted Annual Inflation, Depressed by 2017 Hurricane Distortions,
Softened to 2.64% in September 2018 versus 2.83% in August 2018