FOMC Discussions of Raising Rates to Restrictive Levels Are After the Fact;
Higher Rates Already Are Pummeling Near-Term Economic Prospects and
Threatening Financial-System Stability in this Still-Experimental and
Unresolved Post-2007/2008-Crisis Environment

Oil-Price Driven Inflation Does Not Reflect an Overheating Economy;
It Hurts Consumer Liquidity Just as Much as Federal Reserve Rate Hikes

Faltering Consumer Liquidity Clobbered
September 2018 Retail Sales and New Residential Construction

Real Annual Retail Sales Growth Slowed in a Manner
Most Commonly Seen at the Onset of a New Recession

Building Permits, Housing Starts and Home Sales
Just Entered What Could Be Considered a New Recession

Third-Quarter Permits and Starts Fell in Consecutive Quarterly Contractions;
Existing-Home Sales Declined in a Third Consecutive Quarterly Contraction;
All Key Residential Series Are in Deepening Six-Month Downtrends

Minimal Monthly Growth in September Consumer Goods Production
Came Entirely from Downside Revisions to August Activity

With No End in Sight, September 2018 Manufacturing Remained
Shy by 4.8% (-4.8%) of Recovering Its December 2007 Pre-Recession Peak

The 129 Straight Months (43 Straight Quarters) of Economic Non-Expansion in
U.S. Manufacturing Is the Longest Such Period in the 100-Year History of the Series

Mixed Data Distortions/Disruptions from the Hurricanes of 2018 and 2017