FOMC Tightening Has Strangled Consumer Liquidity

October 2018 U.S. Construction Spending Revised and
Turned Sharply Lower, Both Before and After Inflation Adjustment,
Consistent With an Unfolding New Recession

Plunging October Residential Construction and Home Sales Numbers All
Continued in Deepening Downtrends and Intensifying Quarterly Contractions

Second Estimate of Third-Quarter 2018 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Annualized Real Growth Was Unrevised at 3.50%, Versus 4.16% in Second-Quarter

Yet, Downside Revisions to Motor Vehicle Consumption and Upside Inventory Revisions
Pushed Third-Quarter Final Sales Down to a Revised 1.23% from 1.43%,
Versus 5.33% in Second-Quarter 2018

Also Hitting GDP Growth, the Record Deficit in Third-Quarter Net Exports
Expanded in Revision to a New Record Trade Shortfall

Negative Early Trend for the Fourth-Quarter Real Merchandise Trade Deficit
Suggests an Even Greater Net-Exports Hit to Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP

Hints of a Recession-Driven Shift in Federal Reserve Policy
Intensify Risks of Major Financial-Market Upheaval

Watch for U.S. Dollar Weakness/Instability and Spiking Gold and
Silver Prices; the Dollar and Precious Metals Serve as the
Canary in the Coal Mine for the Domestic Stock and Bond Markets