PENDING DOWNTURN IN ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS

New Recession Should Be Timed from November/Fourth-Quarter 2018 Peak;
Fourth-Quarter 2018 GDP Faces Still Further Downside Revision;
First- and Second-Quarter 2019 Real GDP Quarterly Contractions Loom

Current, Positive Economic Expectations Should Drop Sharply,
Following Heavily Negative Economic Releases, April 16th to 25th,
Leading Into the Initial First-Quarter 2019 GDP Estimate on April 26th

Series Facing Near-Term Negative Catch-Up Reporting and/or Intensifying,
Negative First-Quarter Trends Include: Retail Sales, Production, New Orders,
Freight Activity, Home Sales, Construction and the Trade Deficit