Flash Update No. 15
An Unfolding, Deepening Recession
Upside Revision to Third-Quarter Gross Domestic Product, from 1.9% to 2.1%,
Reflected No More Than an Involuntary Build-Up in Unsold Inventories
Net of Inventory Change, Third-Quarter Final Sales Declined Minimally
Second-Quarter Gross Domestic Income, Theoretical GDP Equivalent,
Revised Down to 0.9% from 1.8% Annualized Real Growth
October 2019 Real New Orders for Durable Goods, Ex-Commercial Aircraft,
Continued to Plunge, Despite Major Downside Revisions to Prior Months
October CASS Freight Index Dropped Year-to-Year for the 11th Straight Month;
Indicating a Deepening Downturn and Risks of a Fourth-Quarter GDP Contraction
With the FOMC-Proclaimed Sustainable Moderate Expansion Evaporating,
Expectations Should Shift in Favor of a More-Accommodative Fed