FLASH UPDATE - November 6, 2008

JOHN WILLIAMS’ SHADOW GOVERNMENT STATISTICS

FLASH UPDATE

November 6, 2008

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October Employment Conditions Should Show Marked Deterioration

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PLEASE NOTE: With the pending full newsletter shifted to this coming weekend, the outlook for tomorrow’s employment report is discussed briefly, below. A further Flash Update will follow with detail of tomorrow’s data release, along with analysis of the money supply data due for publication tonight by the Federal Reserve. A broad review as to where U.S. economic activity and inflation stand and are headed will follow in this weekend’s newsletter. – Best wishes to all, John Williams

Jobs and Unemployment Due for Big Hits.   With both the October manufacturing and nonmanufacturing purchasing managers surveys showing their employment measures falling deep into recession territory, with September help-wanted advertising holding at its historic low and online advertising still tumbling year-to-year, and with a new claims for unemployment insurance continuing to rise sharply year-to-year, October payrolls should have dropped by over 200,000, along with a continued sharp rise in the unemployment rate.

The October report is due for release tomorrow morning (November 7th). Consensus expectations are running at roughly a 200,000 payroll loss and a 0.2% increase in the unemployment rate to 6.3%, per briefing.com. They are not unreasonable, but still appear to be somewhat shy of reality. Election pressures are gone, but financial market pressures for rigged data remain. With the markets still far from stable conditions, a slightly better than expected payroll number might be a fair bet.

Details will follow in a Flash Update following the employment report.

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