Section Four
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Reporting/Market Focus

State-by-State Broad Unemployment Rate Comparisons

 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly releases estimates of the headline unemployment number (U.3) on a state-by-state basis. While the national number is released usually on the first Monday of the month following the survey month, the state-by-state detail usually is released about two weeks later.

Recently, the BLS began releasing estimates of its alternative measures of labor underutilization, including their broadest measure (U.6), which includes marginally attached workers (encompassing short-term discouraged workers) and those forced to work part-time for economic reasons, on a state-by-state basis, using a rolling annual average, updated quarterly. Details can be found at: http://www.bls.gov/lau/ under the "Alternative Measure of Labor Underutilization for States" link.

Since the annual BLS numbers fall far short of measuring the current circumstance, I have estimated U.6 by state for June 2009 and also have estimated a state-by-state SGS-Alternate Unemployment measure. The state-by-state June U.6 estimates were calculated using the relative proportions of the latest annual U.6 to U.3 by state, adjusted for the latest monthly U.6 to U.3 ratio in national reporting, against the latest U.3 reporting by state. The SGS estimate of the long-term discouraged workers — defined out of statistical existence in 1994 — also was distributed on a proportional basis in estimating the SGS-Alternate Unemployment rate by state.

The results are shown in the following table. Economic downturns rarely are spread evenly across the United States at the same time; some states lead and others follow, and various states are impacted by a wide range of varying economic activity.

The hardest hit state, at present, appears to be Michigan, with 26.3% U.6 unemployment, and 32.9% unemployment using the SGS measure. Those rates tend to rival the national averages seen during the Great Depression. Following in severity, are Oregon, Nevada, California, South Carolina and, Rhode Island, all with U.6 above 20% and the SGS estimate above 25%.

On the positive side, North Dakota, Nebraska, Utah and South Dakota all have U.6 rates below 10%, and SGS estimates at 12% or below.

This table will be updated regularly on our Web site, if there is subscriber interest.

 

 

 
State-by-State Unemployment Rate Estimates for June 2009
Headline (U-3), BLS Broadest (U-6) and SGS Alternative Measures
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
State Ranked by
Unemployment Rate (%)
 
 
Unemployment Rate (%)
SGS-Alt/U-6
U-3
U-6
SGS-Alt
 
State
U-3
U-6
SGS-Alt
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Michigan
15.2
26.3
32.9
 
Alabama
10.1
16.1
20.0
Oregon
12.2
22.0
27.5
 
Alaska
8.4
13.9
17.4
Nevada
12.0
20.9
26.1
 
Arizona
8.7
15.3
19.1
California
11.6
20.9
26.0
 
Arkansas
7.2
13.7
17.0
South Carolina
12.1
20.3
25.4
 
California
11.6
20.9
26.0
Rhode Island
12.4
20.2
25.2
 
Colorado
7.6
13.7
17.2
Florida
10.6
19.2
23.9
 
Connecticut
8.0
13.9
17.4
Ohio
11.1
18.8
23.5
 
Delaware
8.4
14.3
17.9
Tennessee
10.8
18.5
23.1
 
D.C.
10.9
16.0
20.0
North Carolina
11.0
18.4
23.0
 
Florida
10.6
19.2
23.9
Indiana
10.7
18.0
22.4
 
Georgia
10.1
17.3
21.6
West Virginia
9.2
17.9
22.4
 
Hawaii
7.4
15.2
19.0
Illinois
10.3
17.5
21.9
 
Idaho
8.4
15.3
19.1
Kentucky
10.9
17.5
21.9
 
Illinois
10.3
17.5
21.9
Georgia
10.1
17.3
21.6
 
Indiana
10.7
18.0
22.4
Washington
9.3
16.8
21.0
 
Iowa
6.2
11.0
13.7
National Average
9.5
16.5
20.6
 
Kansas
7.0
11.8
14.7
Alabama
10.1
16.1
20.0
 
Kentucky
10.9
17.5
21.9
D.C.
10.9
16.0
20.0
 
Louisiana
6.8
10.3
12.8
Wisconsin
9.0
15.8
19.7
 
Maine
8.5
15.5
19.3
New Jersey
9.2
15.7
19.6
 
Maryland
7.3
12.2
15.3
Maine
8.5
15.5
19.3
 
Massachusetts
8.6
14.1
17.6
Arizona
8.7
15.3
19.1
 
Michigan
15.2
26.3
32.9
Idaho
8.4
15.3
19.1
 
Minnesota
8.4
14.6
18.2
Hawaii
7.4
15.2
19.0
 
Mississippi
9.0
14.5
18.1
Missouri
9.3
14.8
18.5
 
Missouri
9.3
14.8
18.5
New York
8.7
14.6
18.3
 
Montana
6.4
11.3
14.1
Minnesota
8.4
14.6
18.2
 
Nebraska
5.0
9.2
11.4
Mississippi
9.0
14.5
18.1
 
Nevada
12.0
20.9
26.1
Delaware
8.4
14.3
17.9
 
New Hampshire
6.8
13.2
16.4
Massachusetts
8.6
14.1
17.6
 
New Jersey
9.2
15.7
19.6
 
 
State-by-State Unemployment Rates for June 2009 (continued)
Headline (U-3), BLS Broadest (U-6) and SGS Alternative Measures
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
State Ranked by
Unemployment Rate (%)
 
 
Unemployment Rate (%)
SGS-Alt/U-6
U-3
U-6
SGS-Alt
 
State
U-3
U-6
SGS-Alt
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Pennsylvania
8.3
14.0
17.5
 
New Mexico
6.8
13.3
16.6
Alaska
8.4
13.9
17.4
 
New York
8.7
14.6
18.3
Connecticut
8.0
13.9
17.4
 
North Carolina
11.0
18.4
23.0
Colorado
7.6
13.7
17.2
 
North Dakota
4.2
7.7
9.6
Texas
7.5
13.7
17.1
 
Ohio
11.1
18.8
23.5
Arkansas
7.2
13.7
17.0
 
Oklahoma
6.3
10.4
12.9
New Mexico
6.8
13.3
16.6
 
Oregon
12.2
22.0
27.5
New Hampshire
6.8
13.2
16.4
 
Pennsylvania
8.3
14.0
17.5
Virginia
7.2
13.0
16.3
 
Rhode Island
12.4
20.2
25.2
Vermont
7.1
12.6
15.8
 
South Carolina
12.1
20.3
25.4
Maryland
7.3
12.2
15.3
 
South Dakota
5.1
9.6
12.0
Kansas
7.0
11.8
14.7
 
Tennessee
10.8
18.5
23.1
Montana
6.4
11.3
14.1
 
Texas
7.5
13.7
17.1
Iowa
6.2
11.0
13.7
 
Utah
5.7
9.6
12.0
Wyoming
5.9
11.0
13.7
 
Vermont
7.1
12.6
15.8
Oklahoma
6.3
10.4
12.9
 
Virginia
7.2
13.0
16.3
Louisiana
6.8
10.3
12.8
 
Washington
9.3
16.8
21.0
South Dakota
5.1
9.6
12.0
 
West Virginia
9.2
17.9
22.4
Utah
5.7
9.6
12.0
 
Wisconsin
9.0
15.8
19.7
Nebraska
5.0
9.2
11.4
 
Wyoming
5.9
11.0
13.7
North Dakota
4.2
7.7
9.6
 
National Average
9.5
16.5
20.6
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Notes: U-3 is the headline unemployment rate. U-6 is the broadest BLS measure and includes
marginally-attached workers (encompassing short-term discouraged workers) and those
employed part time for economic reasons. SGS-Alt is the alternative unemployment rate
estimated by ShadowStats.com. It includes an estimate of long-term discouraged workers
(those who have not looked for work in more than one year), who were defined out of
existence in the 1994 overhaul of unemployment surveying. Data are seasonally adjusted.
The break out by state for U-6 and SGS-Alt are estimates made by ShadowStats.com
 
Sources: ShadowStats.com, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
 
 
 
(c) 2009 ShadowStats.com, American Business Analytics and Research LLC
 
 
 
 
 
 
___________________________________________

  

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